President Donald Trump says the war with Iran could end soon after November’s midterm elections, easing severe energy pressures.
Speaking to reporters, Trump predicted both an approaching end to fighting and sharply lower oil prices afterward.
“I think very soon, I think it’ll be right after the midterms, actually,” Trump told reporters during his Ireland trip.
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Trump added, “Oil prices will tumble when the war ends,” linking any ceasefire to potential energy relief.
His remarks followed another volatile week in global oil markets, with crude prices climbing above $100 per barrel.
Energy markets remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor connecting Persian Gulf producers with global customers.
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Before hostilities began in February, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies moved through the strategic waterway.
Shipping through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, forcing tanker operators to navigate extraordinary security, insurance, and logistical risks.
American motorists have felt those pressures through higher gasoline prices, while diesel costs have also reached exceptionally elevated levels.
Trump’s forecast carries major economic implications because lower oil prices could reduce transportation, manufacturing, and household energy costs.
Trump also accused Iran of probably being responsible for a drone attack against Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline.
“I think they are, probably they are,” Trump said when reporters asked whether Tehran was behind the attack.
The pipeline provides Saudi Arabia an important alternative export route when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes restricted.
Saudi officials said drones launched from Iraqi territory struck the pipeline and nearby infrastructure, causing damage and civilian injuries.
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Trump said he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom the president described as a “good friend.”
“Everything will work out fine,” Trump said while discussing the Saudi attack and broader regional instability.
Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen advanced near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategically important maritime chokepoint.
The Houthis’ gains raised concerns that oil shipments through both ends of the Arabian Peninsula could face simultaneous disruption.
Trump said Houthi representatives contacted his administration and indicated they wanted to avoid direct military confrontation with the United States.
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“They would much prefer not having us involved,” Trump said while discussing communications with the Iran-aligned Yemeni movement.
Trump also said Iran was attempting to prolong the conflict through the American midterms, an allegation Tehran has not accepted.
He argued Americans understood the situation because, as he put it, “Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.”
Diplomatic attention briefly shifted toward Oman, where regional governments planned discussions with Iran concerning Hormuz and wider tensions.
Iran has sought arrangements allowing it to collect fees from vessels using Hormuz, while Oman has resisted that proposal.
By Sunday, the planned Oman meeting had been postponed, underscoring how quickly diplomatic openings can narrow amid continued fighting.
Oil markets reacted to renewed uncertainty, with prices rising again after attacks on Saudi infrastructure and stalled regional diplomacy.
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The International Energy Agency recently warned global oil supply could decline more sharply than previously expected during 2026.
Those conditions mean Trump’s predicted price decline would likely require more than simply announcing a political settlement with Tehran.
Restoring normal shipping, repairing damaged infrastructure, rebuilding inventories, and reducing freight costs would influence how quickly consumers benefit.
Trump maintains that ending the conflict would remove the central geopolitical premium currently embedded in world petroleum prices.
Trump’s timeline places a possible end to the war shortly after November 3, though no agreement currently exists.
For now, Tehran remains defiant, regional fighting continues, and major shipping corridors remain exposed to military and political disruption.
Until then, oil traders, governments, refiners, and motorists remain dependent on developments across Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq, and Oman.